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Previewing the 2008 NFL’s NFC Conference by Vernon Croy

 

What an exciting year it was for the NFC and finally getting their first Super Bowl win since 2005 and only the third in the last decade.  The N.Y. Giants were definitely NOT the team everyone picked at the beginning of the season, but their end of the season game against New England brought new confidence to the table, eventually  handing them the Lombardi Trophy.

 

Now 2008 is upon us and with everyone back at square one there may be a few surprising teams making it to the playoffs this year.  Even though many so called “experts” are picking Dallas or New York to make it to the Super Bowl, there are about 6 other teams that say otherwise.  Whatever happens, I believe the NFC will have just a mediocre season overall.

 

NFC EAST (Dallas, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Washington)

 

Dallas has spent the last two seasons hurting themselves in the playoffs with miscues, even though they are an NFC powerhouse.  It’s been 14 years since Jerry Jones has won a Super Bowl and his patience is no more.  If they don’t win this year, you could see the entire coaching staff gone, which is fine because in my mind Wade Phillips will never be a Super Bowl caliber coach.  However, if he just lets the team go out and play they should wind up winning the division once again.

 

Remember the last time a team one back-to-back Super Bowls?  Well it wasn’t too long ago when the Pats did it, but don’t expect it to happen again in 2008.  Everyone will be gunning for the Giants, not to mention their schedule from October to the first part of November has games against Seattle, at Cleveland, San Francisco, at Pittsburgh, Dallas, and at Philadelphia.  The last four are just as bad so don’t be surprised if they only reach a 50/50 season.

 

Philadelphia and Washington are on the outside looking in and even though the Redskins made it to the playoffs in 2007, 2008 will be a whole lot tougher.  If Donovan McNabb can stay healthy for the Eagles, they will easily overtake the Wild Hogs and have them looking towards next year.  However, Philly doesn’t have an easy road either and even though their offense can take on the elite, an 8-8 record is a great possibility.

 

My Predictions

 

Dallas                     14-2

New York Giants    9-7

Philadelphia            9-7

Washington             7-9

 

NFC NORTH (Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota)

 

Well, the doors are officially wide open for the NFC North.  Now that Favre is gone for good, it will be up to Rex Grossman, Jon Kitna, Aaron Rodgers, and Javarius Jackson to prove their teams are for real.  The frontrunner here has to be the Minnesota Vikings, at least to me anyways.  Their defense only got stronger with the addition of DE Jared Allen from Kansas City and their secondary could be considered one of the best in the league.  Even if Jackson is half as good as the Vikings think, he can always hand the ball off to Adrien Peterson and let him work his magic.

 

The Bears are once again going to be dealing with a quarterback by committee with Grossman and backup Kyle Orton.  With Cedric Benson gone, and Matt Forte considered their #1 back, the defense will have to keep them in games or it’s going to be another long year.  Look for their season to be over before the BYE week (8).

 

Detroit has been trying to workout the kinks of Rod Marinelli’s play books and showed some signs of brilliance last year.  However, the only time their defense looked as though they belonged on the field was about 5 games.  They did draft a barrage of defensive players including Army standout Calais Campbell, but it may take years to see if any of them pan out.  In the end, just another mediocre year for the Lions.

 

So what’s going on in Lambeau?  Who knows, but Aaron Rodgers will now have to endure an entire season.  If he goes down they must rely on longtime journeymen QB Brad Johnson to make things happen.  Their better off putting everything in the hands of their defense.  Since their isn’t a clear cut team, we have to put the Vikings on top for now.  It would have been really interesting had they nabbed Favre.

 

My Predictions

 

Minnesota 9-7

Green Bay 8-8

Detroit       7-9

Chicago     6-10

 

NFC SOUTH (Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay)

 

Let’s be honest.  Last year we thought Carolina and New Orleans were going to be real contenders at the beginning of the season.  Unfortunately injuries and underachieving proved us wrong.  2008 dawns a refreshing start and possibly one of the most competitive divisions in the league.  However, I see the ATL running into all sorts of problems offensively this year as always.  Even with star studded San Diego backup Michael Turner carrying the load, he’s never done it for an entire year.  Plus their schedule looks as though they “might” when 5 games.

 

New Orleans is really having troubles in the backfield, even though just 2 seasons ago it looked as though they would rule this division for many years.  Unfortunately there have been early injury issues with both wide receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, as well as running backs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush.  Even Jeremy Shockey is hurting, which leads me to believe this could be a long season for the Saints.

 

Carolina has the most underrated quarterback around the league in Jake Delhomme, and when healthy they are a team to be reckoned with every week.  Don’t forget, they took on New England just a few Super Bowls ago and are hoping 2008 will bring the same excitement.  They should win the division based on their week schedule and possibly even get a first round bye.  However, they’ll need WR Steve Smith for this to happen and an early ankle injury doesn’t help.

 

Tampa Bay made it to the playoffs in 2007 and just really didn’t get anything going against the Giants in the Wild Card game.  This year injuries could keep them from ever getting things together.  They’ll still stay in many games, but when it’s all said and done their schedule is going to get the best of them in the first half of the season.

 

My Predictions

 

Carolina       11-5

Tampa Bay     8-8

New Orleans 8-8

Atlanta            6-10

 

NFC WEST (Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis)

 

Most of us forget about the NFC West every year because Seattle has won the division 5 years in a row.  Even after Shaun Alexander’s demise last year, they were still able to win the division thanks to several injuries plaguing both Arizona and St. Louis.  So is anything going to change this year?  Not for the 49ers.  For a team that finished 5-11 last year, I think they’ll end up with no more than 3 wins this season thanks to a brutal schedule.

 

Seattle is hoping the combination of RBs Julius Jones (Dallas) and Maurice Morris will be able to run well behind FB Leonard Weaver, which was a huge problem last year with FB Mack Strong calling it quits.  Teams were able to turn the Seahawks into a one dimensional team last year, which won’t happen if the running game can do its part.  Look for Seattle to be right at the top at season’s end once again.

 

St. Louis had the biggest slew of injuries in 2007 and are hoping that subsides during their 08′ campaign.  In order for this to happen the offensive line will have to keep Bulger from laying on his back.  Concussions have plagued him the last two seasons, and one more hard hit could end his career.  WR Torry Holt and RB Steven Jackson make up a strong offensive powerhouse when their running on all cylinders.  Stay tuned.

 

Arizona has been most experts picks to surprise the last two seasons, but injuries have kept them from gelling like they should.  If Leinhart can stay healthy, he will have an easy time picking apart secondaries throughout the league.  The question is, whether or not the defense can live up to its expectations.  You might see RB Edgerrin James and company control the clock more to keep the defense off the field.  While the Cardinals may surprise a few teams it’s their first eight games that will take its toll.  They could be 1-7 before hitting the easier part of the schedule.  In the end, we imagine many teams in the NFC will be bunched up together by the end of the season.  Only time will tell.

 

My Predictions

 

Seattle            12-4

St. Louis         10-6

Arizona             7-9

San Francisco       3-13

1 Unit, Take Detroit ML, Detroit has the superior pitcher on the mound with Armando Galarraga (11-4, 3.11 ERA) who will be looking for his 5ht straight win while Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.85) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.88. Galarraga has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.48 while allowing just 56 hits over 76.3 innings and I look for him to have a lot of success against this Rangers line-up that has not faced him before. Padilla got lit up by the Tigers in his only start against them this season allowing 8 hits and 7 earned runs over just 3 innings including 3 homeruns. I look for the Tigers to hit Padilla hard again tonight and Detroit has owned Texas with a perfect 3-0 record against them this season and a perfect 5-0 record over their last 5 meetings. The Rangers opponents are hitting 325 against them over their last 7 games while averaging 8.3 rpg and I look or the Tigers bats to come alive tonight in Arlington. Take Detroit as your free MLB play for Tuesday and make sure you get on my huge 17-8 MLB Bookie Buster run tonight.

Texas Rangers  vs Boston Red Sox   provided by vernon croy

Texas Rangers

Boston Red Sox

Over/Under:

Event Date: 08/12/2008

Event Time: 7:05 PM est

Play: Take the Over

Score:

Comments: 1 Unit, Take the Over, The O/U is 3-1 for Texas in their last 4 games at Boston and Scott Feldman (4-5, 4.67) has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 5.20. The Rangers opponents are hitting .325 against them over their last 7 games while averaging 6.3 rpg and the Rangers are hitting .286 as a team in night games this season while averaging 5.7 rpg. Boston is hitting .291 as a team at home this season while averaging 5.6 rpg and the Rangers bullpen has struggled on the road with an ERA of 5.01 over 219 innings. Take the Over as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night.

Result: Pending

Sizing Up The 2008-2009 NFC East

Is it really fair that the NFL powerhouse New England Patriots get to play in the most lopsided division in the league? Well, according to them it is and looks to be another boring year in the AFC East. Fortunately for us there are side stories to keep track of which could make one of the other three teams a surprise during this 2008 season.

New England Patriots (16-0, Division Winner, Lost in Super Bowl)

Let’s see, the only problems that Hoodie had to deal with in the off-season was losing Asante Samuel. Do you think he’ll be able to recover? Of course, and he most likely didn’t even sweat it. I don’t really need to go into all the hype surrounding the Patriots because not only are they for real, they’ll dispose of their division counterparts rather easily. In fact, they’re probably trying to figure out who they’ll be facing in the second round of the playoffs right now.

You can note three possibly four games on their schedule, @San Diego, @Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and @Seattle. If they win these games, you might see back-to-back undefeated seasons. That my friends would be crazy!

Miami Dolphins (1-15, Cellar-Dwellers)

Could you imagine a team who could barely when one game a season before (and shouldn’t have, thanks Brian Billick), could start this season out 2-0? It’s possible when they take on the Jets at home in week 1 and travel to Arizona the following week. Bill Parcells has tried to revamp this team as best he could all the way down to the waterboys. However, it still won’t be enough and just consider this a rebuilding year. Hard to believe it’s going to work out that way and still end up winning more games then last year.

Buffalo Bills (8-8, Missed Playoffs)

There is a lot of buzz around Buffalo for the upcoming NFL season. Why? Because they set out to do exactly what they needed in the draft. Securing 6′6″ wide out James Hardy seems to be the missing piece to their offense. At least the fans believe so, but the truth is QB Trent Edwards and his backup J.P. Losman are not the answer. While many believed Edwards was a godsend, the truth is four of his touchdowns last year were against Miami and one was against the Jets. Woohoo!

Okay, on a serious note though if Hardy doesn’t help free up WR Lee Evans then 2009 will have them back at the drawing board looking for another QB in the draft. My opinion? They should of tried to snag Favre even if it is for one or two years. Definitely not up to New England’s standards, but they’ll finish second and most likely be strapped to another 8-8 record.

New York Jets (4-12, Might as well have been Cellar-Dwellers)

Grabbing OG Alan Faneca in the off season was a great pickup for the Jets as well as QB Erik Ainge in the draft. Chad Pennington has proved that he will never be the same since his shoulder issues and Kellen Clemens is not who you want to try and lead you to the playoffs. However, this may be a case where the team around them will help weather the storm and create a decent team.

The addition of ROLB Vernon Gholston brings a lot of excitement to a club who has needed it for about six or seven years. We think they could surprise some people and actually make the playoffs if the offense can stay healthy. Their schedule promotes an easy 9-7 record if not better. We wouldn’t go past a 10-6 season, but it’s definitely playoff worthy.

New England Rules Again

Don’t look for anything accept New England coming out of the AFC East. Even though we threw the Jets out there as a possible surprise with a bolstered line and sound defensive pick-ups, the other teams in the AFC should benefit from the New England East division dominance. It’ll be an interesting year to see who flops and falters throughout the season and winds up back at square one.

After one of the most exciting NFC East seasons in recent memory, 2008 looks to be even better. With the reigning Super Bowl Champion N.Y. Giants geared for a return trip, the other feisty teams (Dallas, Philadephia, Washington) in the division will be looking to unseat the 2007 champs. While many of you may think this is going to be a tight race since three teams were playoff bound last year (everyone but Philly), I on the other hand believe it’s going to be easy to pick the winner.

Washington Redskins (9-7, 2007 Wild Card Team)

Even though it looks like the pieces are in place, the downside to the Redskins in 2008 will be both their schedule and whether or not QB Jason Campbell’s knee holds up. If he goes down they are left with Todd Collins and newcomer Colt Brennan at the helm. They must get out of the gates with a 2-3 or 3-2 record over there first five if they plan on competing for the division.

I’d have to say this is possible with games @N.Y.Giants, New Orleans, Arizona, @Dallas, and @Philadelphia, but an 0-5 start or 1-4 would pretty much end their season early in this division. Look for Washington to miss the playoffs entirely this year and not winning more then 6 or 7 games.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8, 2007 Missed Playoffs)

Things have been looking up for Philadelphia ever since they landed CB Asante Samuel from the Patriots and drafted Wisconsin standout CB Jack Ikegwuonu. They’re going to need all the help they can get in the secondary this year living in the pass happy NFC East. Not to mention some of their out of conference schedule opponents like St. Louis, @Seattle, @Cincinnati, and Cleveland.

Their hopes will lie within the injured list and whether or not superstars like QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook can stay off it. If so, Philly will compete for the division this year, but if not, expect another controversial season. I can pencil them in for another 8-8 season and a possible playoff berth.

Dallas Cowboys (13-3 Division Winner)

The perennial powerhouse is probably still wondering what happened last year. Oh, and for all you Cowboys fans it wasn’t because of Jessica Simpson. The truth of the matter is they got cocky, were a little too sure of themselves and in the end it bit them in the backside. So you have to expect Dallas to come out with complete focus and a whole of scoring. Jerry Jones considered their offensive line to be the best he’s seen since 95′ which is saying a lot considering they won the Super Bowl that year.

While Washington may try to steal a game away from them on the Cowboy’s turf in week 4, I don’t really see a true test until week 9 when they travel too New York and take on the Giants. The second half of their schedule will tell us if we are looking at the NFC Champs by season’s end. Check this out, @ Washington, @ Pittsburgh, and @Philadephia in the last seven. Not to mention Seattle and the Giants at home in between. The end result will leave Dallas around 12-4 or 11-5 and another shot at the title.

New York Giants (10-6, 2007 Wild Card, Super Bowl Champs)

Well, it doesn’t happen very often that we see back-to-back Super Bowl Champs and most likely you aren’t going to see it again this year. From week 8 through week 15, the Giants schedule is riddled with difficulty and with injuries sure to pop up along the way, this patch could render them needing help from other teams just to make the playoffs this year.

Starting @ Pittsburgh on October 26th, then Dallas, @ Philadelphia, @Arizona, @Washington, Philadelphia, and @Dallas with Baltimore shuffled halfway through this could put them in for a fight for last place in the division. So to all you Giants fans out there, sorry about your luck. The good news is you’ll have an entire season to be called the reigning Super Bowl Champions.

Dallas is King

The Cowboys rule, and honestly I don’t even like the Cowboys. However, they will win the NFC East by about week 12 or 13. This could be their year to finally give T.O., Romo, Barber and all the rest of Jones’s boys a Super Bowl ring. The NFC is weak, period. So whoever wins this division should be headed to the Super Bowl.

Big loss for the Denver Broncos as rookie running back Ryan Torain could be out two to three months after suffering a fractured left elbow during Wednesday morning’s workout.Torain was carrying the ball in a nine-on-seven drill when he was tackled. As he fell, Torain stuck out his left hand to brace his fall and his elbow popped. He will miss at least six weeks.

Normally losing a fifth-round pick isn’t a huge deal, but Denver coach Mike Shanahan loves to make stars out of unsung running backs such as Torain. And Shanahan said Torain had been developing to the point where he was competing with Selvin Young and Andre Hall for the No. 1 tailback spot.

“It’s a big loss,” Shanahan said. “I thought he had the chance to compete to be a starting running back. One of the most gifted running backs I’ve been around for a long time, very similar to Terrell Davis when he came in.

‘Any time you break a bone in that elbow area, obviously it’s a setback. I’m just hoping there is not too much ligament damage.’

Torain is a prototypical Broncos running back. He hits the hole quickly and he’s a downhill runner. He fits in Denver’s zone-blocking scheme. He slipped to the fifth round after rushing for 553 yards and five touchdowns at Arizona State last year before suffering a season-ending foot injury in October.

The Broncos have made a living out of scoring with late-round running backs. Terrell Davis was a sixth-round pick, as was Mike Anderson. Olandis Gary, a fourth-round selection in 1999, rushed for 1,159 yards as a rookie. Mike Bell and Young became contributors in the past two years after both were picked up as undrafted free agents.

Five different players have led the Broncos in rushing since 2003.

With Torain out, undrafted rookie Anthony Alridge moved up the depth chart behind Young and Hall while veteran Michael Pittman was shifted from fullback back to his natural tailback position. This is a major boost to Young, who now should win the starting job over Hall and not have to look over his shoulder until Torain is healthy.

The Broncos open the preseason Saturday as 3-point road underdogs on

WagerWeb.com against Houston.

WagerWeb.com against Houston.

While not a big fan of exotic wagers, I do at the beginning of the year look at over and under win totals on NFL teams for the season as a good way to make a long term investment. Forget ESPN and all the others, and listen to the Pro’s guys, as this is not glossed over for TV, but the real deal. Too much public perception leads to Vegas cashing in year after year. After considering the free agent market, not so much the draft as few rookies make a huge impact other than the rare exception, here’s my Top 5 team wagers on over and under prop bets for season win totals.

Bears UNDER 8 wins

Chicago did little in off season to bolster their roster and QB Rex Grossman, one year removed from a dismal Super Bowl performance did nothing in 2007 to improve his skills or decision making. The Bears have little rushing game and their starting RB has had off-season trouble not once but twice! An aging WR unit, a defense that is overrated, and a division with the likes of the surging Vikings and the runner up NFC champs Packers does little for the Bears chances. A brutal November as well if you look at their schedule. You cannot win in the NFL scoring 14 to 20 points a game. Until the Bears draft a QB or get one in free agency, I do not see Rex Grossman leading them to another championship in the NFC, nor the defense carrying them every game, as evidenced by last years effort.

Saints OVER 8.5 wins (My strongest Prop bet)

I love the Saints this year to get back into the groove of things. With the addition of Jeremy Shockey from New York, with Colson at WR, and the 1-2 punch of Bush and a healthy McCallister at RB, the Saints should be a powerhouse on offense with a still underrated Drew Brees pulling the trigger at QB. There was some improvement on defense but the offense will have to score 24 to 28 ppg to get wins, and that should not be a problem. They play in a very weak division with a weak schedule too, which is a huge positive for them. I would not be surprised to see them deep into the playoffs this season again. I feel that this team is poised to make a big move in 2008!

Raiders UNDER 6 wins

I am not a Raider fan this year. No QB that can play the game as of yet on ther roster in Russell, and banking on a rookie RB in McFadden who will be a good one out of Arkansas, but alas no offensive line, is a big mistake. Hopefully WR free agent Javone Walker can fill the place of Porter who was traded to Jacksonville, but I doubt the defense can stop people running the ball. Quite frankly the Raiders simply cannot score enough points, or keep their offense on the field long enough to rest the defense, and as the game wears down, the Raiders will lose. Too bad because I think Lane Kiffen could be a great coach, but not under Al Davis or the team he has this year. There also is turmoil on the coaching staff and at one point Al Davis was going to fire Kiffen. Not good news heading into this year with allot of question marks

Arizona OVER 7.5 wins

I was all over the Cards last year as an ATS cover team, and they did well. This is a talented team, deep on offense at skill positions, and if QB Leinart can get his act together this team could be a playoff contender. They will battle it out with Seattle this year for top honors in the division, but they have a deep RB unit, the best 1-2 punch at WR in the NFL, and a solid tight end as well, and a decent O line. The ageless Kurt Warner is still around to bail them out, and the defense is improved again. I see 10 wins here out of the Cards and a possible playoff run if they can stay healthy and balance the attack.

Seattle Seahawks OVER 8.5 wins

Mike Holmgren’s last year folks, and he will make a run. This team has a great QB, a solid defense, solid WR’s and a strong homefield. They play in a weak division, although Arizona is going to contend as mentioned earlier. Running backs Julius Jones and TJ Duckett step in for the departed Alexander, and they have and undersized but good line. The defense allowed just 15 TD passes against them all year, an NFL best, and this unit remains pretty much in tact. This is a solid team, with good coaching a good special teamers, and great overall team speed. Seattle will contend and win 10 games this year as Holmgeren is too good of a coach to go out with his tail between his legs!

Be sure to check out weekly football plays from myself right here at www.VernonCroy.com!